Strong Recession Signal
- Since 1990, the spread between 30-month T-Bills and the 10-year Treasury Note was only more inverted ahead of the 2001 recession.
- Since 1990, the spread between 30-month T-Bills and the 30-year long bond has only been more inverted a couple of times.
This is a very strong recession signal.
Reducing Inflation Without a Recession Might Not Be Feasible
It’s unusual for the Fed to be this candid but Kansas City Fed President Esther George says Reducing Inflation Without a Recession Might Not Be Feasible
“I’m looking at a labor market that is so tight, I don’t know how you continue to bring this level of inflation down without having some real slowing, and maybe we even have contraction in the economy to get there,” said Kansas City Fed President Esther George, who is set to retire in January.
Some of Ms. George’s colleagues have recently said that they still see a way for the Fed to bring inflation down without a serious downturn, but Ms. George was more circumspect in an interview Tuesday.
“I would love if there was that path, and I’ve seen people paint that path,” she said. “I have not in my 40 years with the Fed seen a time of this kind of tightening that you didn’t get some painful outcomes.”
Scroll to Continue
This post originated at MishTalk.Com
Please Subscribe!
Like these reports? I hope so, and if you do, please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.
Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time.
If you have subscribed and do not get email alerts, please check your spam folder.
Mish
Source link
Author Mish
