Definitions
- The Civilian Noninstitutional Population is defined as persons 16 years of age and older residing in the 50 states and the District of Columbia, who are not inmates of institutions (e.g., penal and mental facilities, homes for the aged), and who are not on active duty in the Armed Forces.
- The participation rate is the percentage of the population that is either working or actively looking for work. The labor force participation rate is calculated as: (Labor Force ÷ Civilian Noninstitutional Population) x 100.
- Labor Force: Those in the civilian noninstitutional population, age sixteen years or older, who are employed or who are unemployed and seeking employment.
Civilian Noninstitutional Population in Thousands
Labor Force Participation Rate Trends
Participation Rates, October all years, BLS data, chart by Mish.
I used seasonally-adjusted (SA) numbers where available, otherwise non-adjusted numbers (NSA).
Labor Force Participation Rates 2019-2022
Participation Rates 2019 through 2022, October all years, BLS data, chart by Mish.
Change in Participation Rate October 2022 Minus October 2019
- 16-19: +1.3
- 20-24: -1.6
- 25-54: -0.3
- 55-59: -0.5
- 60-64: -0.2
- 65+: -0.6
We can take those numbers and calculate what the labor force would have been for each of the above age groups had the participation rate stayed the same as three years ago (pre-Covid).
Labor Force Change at October 2019 Rate
- 16-19: 17,107,000 * -0.013 = -222,391
- 20-24: 20,917,000 * 0.016 = 334,672
- 25-54: 127,197,000 * 0.003 = 381,591
- 55-59: 20,697,000 * 0.005 = 103,485
- 60-64: 21,311,000 * 0.002 = 42,622
- 65+: 57,307,000 * 0.006 = 343,842
Key Points
- Had the participation rates not changed from three years ago, the 16-19 labor force would be fewer by 22,391.
- Had the participation rates not changed from three years ago, labor force age 20 and older would be 1,176,212 larger.
- Note the huge decline in the participation rate from 57.6 percent to 19.8 percent when one turns 65.
Lost in the Strong Jobs Meme, Full Time Employment is Down 572,000 Since May
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Payroll and employment data from the BLS, chart by Mish
Please recall my November 4 post Lost in the Strong Jobs Meme, Full Time Employment is Down 572,000 Since May
Think jobs are strong? Look beneath the surface at huge and growing divergences between jobs and employment.
Payrolls vs Employment Since March 2022
- Nonfarm Payrolls: +2,452,000
- Employment Level: +150,000
- Full Time Employment: -490,000
Employment fell by 328,000 in October.
Full time employment is down 490,000 since March and down by 572,000 since May!
Those 16 to 19 Years Old Have Returned to Work, Other Age Groups Haven’t
This post is a follow-up to my post Those 16 to 19 Years Old Have Returned to Work, Other Age Groups Haven’t
We can now tie some thing together.
What’s Going On?
- Boomers are turning 65 or older at a rapid pace as noted in the lead chart.
- Many boomers are retiring. Others work part time.
- Many in other age groups are struggling with inflation and have taken a second or third part time job.
Everything points to part time jobs to fueling the job gains. Meanwhile, the Fed is hell bent on trying to kill jobs to reduce inflation.
This post originated at MishTalk.Com
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