Let’s compare PredictIt betting trend to the odds given by Nate Silver’s 538 deluxe model.
How the 538 Senate Forecast Has Changed
538 US Senate as of Nov 6, 8:21 PM
538 labels the 54-46 Senate odds a “Dead Heat”.
On October 17, 2022 PredictIt bettors moved into Republican territory and never looked back.
That was ahead of a critical debate in the Pennsylvania Senate race between Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz, a former TV doctor, and John Fetterman, the Democratic Lt. Governor.
On Tuesday, October 25, the two candidates squared off in a debate and Fetterman put in a dismal performance.
Fetterman suffered a stroke in May and refuses to disclose his medical records. None were needed. Everyone could hear the results.
Fetterman dropped vowels from sentences and gave a preposterous answer when asked about fracking. The record shows he has always been against fracking but the exchange was bizarre.
Bizarre Fracking Exchange
“I’ve always supported fracking,” Mr. Fetterman said when pressed by a moderator. He later added that, “I do support fracking and I don’t, I don’t—I support fracking, and I stand, and I do support fracking.”
What?!
For further discussion, please see my November 5 post, Spotlight on Pennsylvania – Which Party Will Win?
538 Senate Odds by State
538 US Senate Candidate Odds as of Nov 6, 8:21 PM, Blue Boxes by Mish
I think Silver is in the ballpark on everything in the Blue Box. The rest is debatable but let’s start with the Nevada Senate Race.
Nevada Senate
538 Nevada Polls as of Nov 6, 8:21 PM
Judging from those polls and overall momentum I suggest something like 70-30 for Laxalt not 57-43.
Pennsylvania Senate
538 Pennsylvania Polls as of Nov 6, 8:21 PM
Judging from those polls and overall momentum I suggest something like 55-45 or even 60-40 for Oz not 54-46 Fetterman.
Scroll to Continue
Georgia Senate
538 Georgia Polls as of Nov 6, 8:21 PM
Based on momentum, I think Silver overestimates Walker’s chances. In Georgia, a candidate needs to get at least 50 percent of the vote or there is a runoff. The Libertarian candidate is polling about 3 percent so whoever wins is likely to have to win twice.
There is always a risk in a runoff.
In Arizona, I think Silver is in the ballpark but to quibble I would reduce it a bit to 60-40.
New Hampshire
I think silver is wrong on New Hampshire odds.
I would not at all be shocked if Republican Bolduc won, without that being my call. I just disagree with the 74-26 percent odds for Hassan.
I suggest it’s more like 62-38 or 60-40 Hassan.
Where Does That Put Things?
If we place Nevada in the Republican column and Arizona in the Democrat column (those are my base assumptions), then to win the Senate, Republicans need to win one more of Pennsylvania, Georgia, or a pretty big upset in New Hampshire.
It’s relatively easy to place odds on this but it’s difficult to have much faith in them. It’s possible pollsters overcorrected for severe mistakes in 2016 and 2020 or they are even worse in the same direction as before.
Put me somewhere between Nate Silver and PredictIt say 62-38 for Republicans.
The higher odds one is willing to place on Oz winning Pennsylvania, the higher odds one should place on the overall outcome. For example, If you think Oz is a 65-35 favorite in Pennsylvania, then I believe PredictIt is about right.
The late-breaking polls in Georgia for Warnock coupled with the odds of a runoff should have Republicans a bit concerned. The winner may have to win twice.
That said, anything worse than a tie for Republicans would be somewhat of a shock. In contrast, I would not all all be surprised if Republicans win 53 Senate seats.
So in addition to the base odds, it’s a lot easier to see a big red wave skew than Democrats gaining more seats.
We likely find out Tuesday or early Wednesday. However, don’t be surprised if Pennsylvania heads to the courts over un-dated ballots.
This post originated at MishTalk.Com
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