The Kerch bridge from Russian to Crimea has reportedly been hit by a massive explosion on the span that carries railway traffic. Social media videos show a fiercely burning fire engulfing at least two railway carriages from a train on the bridge. The explosion, which witnesses said could be heard kilometres away, took place around 6 am on October 8. It’s said that a train was crossing the bridge at the time of the incident, as per reports.
Collapsed Road
Fuel Storage Tank on Fire
Above images from the video below.
Boom Here Comes the Boom
Ukraine neither claims nor denies responsibility. But here is a Ukraine Government Defense Ministry Tweet.
Just the Beginning
Михайло Подоляк @Podolyak_M is Adviser to the Head of the Office of President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Who Did It?
There are three possibilities. Russia, Ukraine, US.
Q: Russia?
A: Yes, to justify use of nuclear weapons
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Assessing the Damages
The Wall Street Journal reports Crimea Bridge Explosion Disrupts Supply Route for Russian Forces
Russia’s investigations committee said three people died after the early-morning explosion on Saturday of a truck on the bridge’s roadway next to a supply train that was carrying fuel. Some demolition experts who analyzed footage of the blast questioned the Russian version and said that the explosion must have come from under the bridge, caused either by an explosives-laden boat, manned or unmanned, or by shaped charges placed by divers.
Tony Spamer, a former British Army expert on bridge demolitions, said that a truck bomb would have created a hole in the middle of bridge, but wouldn’t have been sufficient to cut the reinforcing bar and cause the structure to collapse. “You’ve got to attack the whole width of the bridge. Looking at it, it looks like it was attacked from underneath. It’s a monster job,” he said.
David MacKenzie, a senior technical director at COWI Holding A/S, a Denmark-based company that designs and builds some of the world’s largest and longest bridges, said it would take several months for Russia to be able to fully restore the destroyed spans of the bridge, and that the ban on truck traffic reflects concerns that the bridge’s substructure has also been damaged. Weight restrictions are also likely to be imposed on the railway bridge should it reopen, he said.
Assessing the Odds Putin Uses Nuclear Weapons
How Will Putin Respond? That is the key question.
I am sure this increases the odds Russia uses tactical nuclear weapons. But from what percent to what percent?
Is Putin bluffing? How would anyone know?
And although it’s logical to presume the odds just rose, no one has any real idea what those odds are.
For discussion, please see What Are the Odds Putin is Bluffing About Using Nuclear Weapons?
This post originated at MishTalk.Com
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