GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are cutting calories… and grocery bills, according to a new study from Cornell’s SC Johnson College of Business using data from Numerator.
The study analyzed grocery shopping transaction data from 2,623 households (11.6% of the total households tracked) with at least one member starting GLP-1 use between January 2023 and July 2024. For each adopter, the researchers tracked grocery spending for six months prior to adoption and six to 12 months after adoption. The latest survey data shows current usage at 7.7% of households.
Unlike insurance claims data, which tend to reflect usage among diabetic or obese patients with treatment covered by insurance, Numerator’s data also capture households that use GLP-1 drugs ‘off-label,’ including many who pay out of pocket and do not meet the clinical criteria for obesity, providing a broader view of adoption patterns.
Cornell study: GLP-1 drugs will ‘significantly reshape consumer food demand’
The study found that households with at least one GLP-1 user typically reduce grocery spending by 5.5% within six months of adoption, with higher-income households reducing spending by 8.6%. Reductions in spending are across the board, but the sharpest declines are in purchases of savory snacks, sweet and baked goods, and soft drinks.
This is counterbalanced by a slight increase in purchases of yogurt and fresh produce, say the authors. “Overall, the results show that GLP-1 users reduce spending on high-calorie, high-sugar, or high-fat items. For example, spending on products such as chips, sweet bakery, sides, and cookies show some of the largest reductions.”
GLP-1 households also reduce food-away-from-home expenditures, with breakfast spending declining by nearly 4% and dinner spending decreasing by 6%.
While the magnitude of spending reductions diminishes after six months, notes the study, “The effects remain negative and statistically significant. This partial reversal may be driven by factors such as compliance challenges, waning drug efficacy, or measurement limitations. Anecdotally, some users report that the appetite-suppressing effects weaken over time, necessitating dosage adjustments to sustain efficacy.”
“The impact of GLP-1 use extends beyond just calorie-dense products, with most categories experiencing declines. Notably, increased spending is observed only for yogurt and fresh produce and only among adopters who take GLP-1 for weight loss.” Cornell study
SPINS: ‘I think that we’re in for a surge in multivitamins’
But what will GLP-1 drugs mean for dietary supplements?
Scott Dicker, market insights director at consumer intelligence firm SPINS, told AgFunderNews that, “Generally speaking, I think that sales of traditional weight management supplements will continue to go down while over time, protein, multivitamins, probiotics, and green supplements will benefit.”
He added: “I think most importantly, GLP-1 drugs are accelerating a trend towards being more mindful in purchasing habits. And within that, anything that can be positioned as filling nutrient gaps [for people on GLP-1 drugs] is going to be a winner.
“As people are eating less, they want to make their calories count, and they also want to make sure they are getting their greens and their vitamins, so I predict continued growth in green supplements (+16.3% in the year to October 6, 2024) and more interest in multivitamins (-2.7% in the year to Oct 6, 2024, but that reflects an improvement vs the -7% decline in the year to Oct 8, 2023). I actually think that we’re in for a surge in multivitamins, as people are going to be looking to cover their bases and fill nutrient gaps. They also want to preserve muscle, so proteins will have a continued health halo.”
While traditional weight loss supplements such as fat burners and other pills (sales -10.5% in the year to Oct 6, 2024) will likely suffer, he predicted, other weight management products featuring protein “can do quite well as companion products.” Meanwhile, so-called ‘active nutrition’ products featuring protein are also performing well.
That said, sales of berberine, a natural health supplement claimed to support weight management, continue to grow in the double digits (+21.6% in the year to Oct 6, 2024), he noted. “It was a little known supplement for blood sugar support, and then it got dubbed Nature’s Ozempic on social media and it went viral. So this is my personal opinion, but you will always have segments of the population that are resistant to using pharmaceuticals or want to try ‘natural’ solutions first, so products like berberine aren’t going to go away.”
As for gut health, which has attracted more awareness as GLP-1 drugs have gained traction, SPINS data show sales of probiotic supplements were down 7.6% in the year to October 6. However, this doesn’t capture probiotics added to foods and beverages, a growing opportunity, added Dickerson.
Meanwhile, prebiotics—ingredients (typically fibers) that stimulate the growth of good bacteria in the gut—are gaining significant traction, he noted. “Pre- and probiotic sodas have exploded. And I think they will continue to do well as more people use GLP-1 drugs as one of the most common reported side effects is gastrointestinal distress.”
He added: “My advice for a lot of brands wondering how to respond to new trends such as GLP-1s is instead of chasing them with new products, look at where your existing products can be positioned to tap into them. It’s the same with keto, it can be risky to come up with entirely new products for a trend you don’t know will last, but if you position existing products as keto-friendly, you can still cash in.”
Rabobank: This is just the beginning…
While it’s still early days, the GLP-1 market has been able to grow so dramatically “because of the unanticipated role of FDA-registered compounding pharmacies that have helped to help fill the supply gap created by producing cheaper copies of these medications,” said Nick Fereday, executive director, food & consumer trends at Rabobank in a recent analysis.
“Most of these drugs produced by compounding pharmacies have been sold to patients via telehealth companies such as Ro, Sesame, Hims & Hers, and even Weight Watchers at a substantial discount ($200-300/month compared to the Wegovy list price of about $1,350/month).”
In the US, he added, “We can expect at least 15 new AOM [anti-obesity medications] drugs on the market within the next five years. Of these, the most excitement is around who will win the race to first commercialize one of these next-generation AOMs in pill form.”
Further reading:
GLP-1 drugs are a tool, not a panacea, says Tufts professor: ‘Structured lifestyle support, including food is medicine, is critical to prevent weight regain’
Guest article: GLP-1 drugs: The effect on food systems is going to be profound… and relatively quick
Mattson probes Ozempic effect on food innovation, from mini-bites and hydrating pops to lighter protein drinks
From ‘GLP-1 companion foods’ to ‘Nature’s Ozempic…’ What the new breed of weight loss drugs means for the food industry
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Author Elaine Watson
