If you listen to “alternative news” you sometimes are ahead of the game. My favorite kind of alternative news is the “ice agers” which are a small group of content creators who think we’re entering an ice age. No matter what you think of their main thesis they called a global famine two to three years ago – in fact YouTube channel Adapt 2030 is responsible for me making a nice chunk of change by investing in stocks and options that guests of his mentioned. But I’m not here to tell you to believe we’re entering an ice age I’m here to tell you what was suppressed by social media is now mainstream news – namely that the world doesn’t have enough food.
I present all this to you so you can see how short on time we are:
From Bloomberg experts talk about food insecurity at an all time high
From Insider experts are saying the world has 10-weeks of wheat left:
The world has about 10 weeks of wheat supplies stored as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine enters its fourth month, a food insecurity expert told the UN.
Sara Menker, the CEO of agriculture analytics firm Gro Intelligence, told the UN Security Council that the Russia-Ukraine war was not the cause of a food security crisis but “simply added fuel to a fire that was long burning.”
Ukraine is considered the world’s “breadbasket” and Russia and Ukraine combined account for almost a third of the world’s wheat exports.
Notice the expert says the Russian war isn’t the problem.
From Reuters:
U.S. grains futures edged higher on Monday, lifted by a weaker dollar, gains in crude oil and as adverse weather conditions threatened production in key producing countries.
The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was up 0.9% at $10.79-1/4 a bushel, as of 0343 GMT, after falling 0.74% last week.
“Wheat supplies for exports are only shrinking because of the Ukraine war, exports ban and deteriorating weather conditions,” said a Mumbai-based trader with a global trading house.
“French and U.S. crop numbers are now getting revised downward,” the trader said, adding all these factors support a prolonged rally in wheat.
Growing conditions for wheat and barley crops in France fell sharply for a second straight week as a hot spell exacerbated drought in the European Union’s biggest grain producer.
In the United States, an annual field tour of Kansas last week found the lowest yield potential in the top winter wheat state since 2018.
Emphasis mine.
As hard as we’re going to be hit Africa is going to get hit harder.
The U.S. and the United Nations are working to get grains and essential food moving out of closed ports in war-torn Ukraine.
On Wednesday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, and the World Food Program Executive Director David Beasley began two days of meetings at the U.N. in an effort to rectify food crises in Ukraine and across the world.
Blinken will meet with African leaders — where several food crises are headed for famine conditions — at U.N. Headquarters in New York during his two-day trip. Earlier this month, Ukraine closed its four Black and Azov sea ports after they were captured by Russian forces.
In the above meeting Blinkin tried to say sanctions on Russia wasn’t playing a role in this but fertilizer imports (which predominantly come from Russia) collapsing is destroying the food supply:
May 17 (UPI) — A shortage of fertilizer is one part of a confluence of factors behind rising food prices across the United States, as the Biden administration continues to look for financial solutions to help the agricultural sector.
Fertilizer costs account for about 15% of total cash costs for U.S. farmers, while the prices of the nutrient additive have nearly doubled between the summer of 2020 and the end of 2021.
That rising cost of doing business is being passed through the food supply chain and on to consumers, while prices had been increasing because of supply chain disruptions related to the COVID-19 pandemic.
[…]
Potash is almost entirely used in fertilizers. Mostly produced as potassium chloride, the potash name is given to a group of minerals and chemicals containing potassium, a basic nutrient for plants and key fertilizer ingredient. Potash levels are normally done in measurements of potassium oxide.
Historically, Russia and Belarus have produced around 40% of global potash exports. The world’s biggest producer is the Canadian prairie province of Saskatchewan. However, since Russia was hit with international sanctions for its ongoing invasion of Ukraine, that percentage has dropped. Additionally, the world’s second-largest potash producer, Belaruskali, was hit by U.S. sanctions in August over a disputed presidential election in which President Alexander Lukashenko declared victory.
I’m not going into the politics except to say if we had more small farms we could use animal inputs for growing wheat. And governments are already trying to deny the obvious to stop panic:
A Cabinet minister has rebuffed Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey after he sounded an “apocalyptic” warning over looming food shortages caused by Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis said on Tuesday he was “surprised to see that kind of terminology”, insisting supermarkets had already bought food supplies in advance.
Mr Lewis told Sky News: “Yes, I was surprised to see that kind of terminology there, particularly in light of the fact that obviously food supplies are for supermarkets.
“Food supplies are already bought a long way in advance so supermarkets are placing orders for many, many months down the line…and they’re working on today’s prices and what they’re buying for today is what we will be seeing in supermarkets in the period ahead.”
That last article was added just so you could understand how little the central planners understand about food. No market in the world has more than a weeks worth of any good in stock. That’s a known issue of our global system.
To wrap this up here’s a local news report where a farmer gives a dire warning:
Understand what this guy is saying – it is likely that family farms can’t make a profit this year and is predicting farmers are going to stop producing enough food. Act accordingly.
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Author Rob Taylor
