I have been making notes, some of them incorrectly. Apologies offered.
Generational Bottoms
Bitcoin is Life
Hoot of the Day (From May 2022)
Hmm 6 months is up. On May 8, Bitcoin was $34,000. It’s now under $16,000.
That’s OK because 6 months doesn’t matter and $1BTC is still $1BTC.
Bitcoin Log Chart
Bitcoin chart courtesy of CoinDesk, support levels by Mish
Where to From Here?
I do not know, nor does anyone else, especially the plethora of bottom callers in the past few months.
However, we can discuss technical support levels where Bitcoin is likely to bounce.
Support Levels and Strength
- 10,347 Weak
- $5,411 Modest
- $3,668 Strong
- $1,914 Modest
- $934 Modest
My guess is that the $10,000 level will not hold. If not, the first support level of modest strength is $5,411.
But if we get that far and Saylor has not been figuratively carted out in a basket yet, I doubt that level hold.
Scroll to Continue
What Will Trigger a Bottom?
Nine Answers
- Yabba Dabba Doo: Apathy is the correct answer. Once no one cares or talks about it, then the bottom is in. Then the wait for bitcoin halving truly begins.
- Dmitry McKay: Fed. It’s always been Fed.
- Mario kanario: COVID19 cycle buyers capitulating.
- Lord Wrymouth: Numbers like $10,879 as bears pile in for four digits and people panic sell.
- Patrick Johnson: Saylor and/or Tether blowing up
- Rudy Russo: Tether
- G: A legitimate use case emerging, but sailor blowing up will be funny
- PlantainYum: $0.00
- Stephan Orme: Does anyone still think bitcoin will survive?
Cult Hero Michael Saylor
Image from Michael Saylor’s Twitter Profile
Cult Hero Worship
The Crypto Crash and Why It’s Impossible For “You!” to Cash Out
For a discussion of Michael Saylor, margin calls, and some amusing comments on why Bitcoin cannot possibly go lower than $20,000 …. please see my June 18, 2022 post The Crypto Crash and Why It’s Impossible For “You!” to Cash Out
Intermingled Accounts and Betting Books
3AC, Celsius, Finblox, GBTC, UST, LUNC, BlockFi, Deribit (a derivitaves exchange), and 8 Blocks Capital are all involved in this mess.
Let’s take one statement and sum it all up: “I hope you pay us back asap.”
A telling note on the likelihood of that comes from Finblox which is offering an amazing “90% interest” on asset pledges. That’s an indication of something headed to zero sooner than than later.
I am also amused by BlockFi’s statement “We fully accelerated the loan and fully liquidated or hedged all the associated collateral.”
I highlighted the word “or hedged“.
Question: How good are those hedges? What bankrupt firm will pay them?
Additional Amusing Comments
- “Insane to Sell At These Levels”
- “Can’t Go Below $20,000”
- “Worst Case on Ethereum is $1,000”
- “Bitcoin is Money”
- “It will Go Up Forever”
- “Money Always Goes Up”
And here we are, six months and hundreds of bottom calls later in the same silly discussions about worst case scenarios.
This post originated at MishTalk.Com.
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