Target rate odds are from CME Fedwatch
December 14, 2022 Meeting
Target Rate Probabilities for December 14, 2022 as of November 2, 2022
February 1, 2023 Meeting
Target Rate Probabilities for February 1, 2023 as of November 2, 2022
March 22, 2023 Meeting
Target Rate Probabilities for March 22, 2023 as of November 2, 2022
June 14, 2023 Meeting
Target Rate Probabilities for June 14, 2023 as of November 2, 2022
September 20, 2023 Meeting
Target Rate Probabilities for September 20, 2023 as of November 2, 2022
December 13, 2023 Meeting
Target Rate Probabilities for December 13, 2023 as of November 2, 2022
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Terminal Rate
There are two additional meetings that I did not show, in July and November of 2023.
The market expectation of a terminal rate is 5.00 percent in June or September of 2023.
A cut back to the 4.50% to 4.75% is then expected by the end of 2023.
The schedule of expected hikes may change substantially in a few hours depending on what Fed Chair Jerome says.
Looking ahead, the moment the Fed pauses from the expected schedule following today’s meeting is the moment expected increases in the rate of hikes reverses for good.
Right now, I highly doubt we get to 5.0%. In fact, I expect we will see our last hike no later than December 2022 at 4.25% to 4.50%.
A recession will then be obvious.
This post originated at MishTalk.Com.
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