Aliens Exist (But They’re Probably Dead)

I break down the fascinating discussion between Lex Fridman and astrophysicist Adam Frank. Watch their conversation here

The two good doctors discussed Adam’s mind-blowing calculation that there have been approximately 10 billion trillion experiments for life to emerge in our universe. This suggests that unless the probability of life emerging is incredibly low (less than 1 in 10 billion trillion), we are almost certainly not the first instance of life in cosmic history.

Lex and Adam move on to a fascinating series of topics including what are technosignatures, Alien Civilizations, the Search for Extraterrestrial Life, and the Drake Equation and its modern implications with new exoplanet data. I couldn’t resist opining with my thoughts about the probability of life originating on Earth versus elsewhere in the galaxy, and the possibilities of panspermia between Earth and Mars.

Here I cover a variety of questions using a Bayesian reasoning framework including:
Why bacteria could potentially survive interplanetary travel
The mathematical case for why Earth is unlikely to be the first place life emerged
Analysis of Frank’s “pessimism line” calculation showing odds of 1 in 10 billion trillion
Discussion of habitable zones and what makes a planet capable of supporting life
The debate around whether simple life could survive on Mars
What planetary conditions are needed for life to emerge and thrive

Breaking down the fascinating discussion between Lex Fridman and astrophysicist Adam Frank about the probability of alien civilizations. I examine Frank’s “pessimism line” calculation and add three new mathematical analyses:

Binary Planet Probability: Using Bayes’ Theorem to calculate the chance of finding life on both planets in a two-planet system, given we’ve found it on one.

Earth’s Cosmic Primacy: Mathematical analysis of the probability that Earth was genuinely the first place life emerged in our galaxy, factoring in galaxy age and habitable planet estimates.

Earth-Mars Panspermia: Calculating the likely number of viable microbes that could have reached Mars through asteroid impacts during Earth’s early history.
Together these calculations paint a compelling picture about life’s cosmic probability and help us understand Frank’s insights about alien civilizations.

Timestamps:
0:00 Introduction
3:45 Binary Planet Analysis
8:12 Earth First Calculation
14:35 Panspermia Math
19:20 Implications
23:50 Conclusions

EPISODE LINKS:
Adam’s recent papers:

Adam’s Website:
Adam’s X:
Adam’s Books:
The Little Book of Aliens:
Light of the Stars:
The Blind Spot:
The Constant Fire:

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Dr Brian Keating

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